branching off. why bank branches are closing in record numbers. in today's cover story, it's good-bye geithner, as a new treasury secretary prepares to fill his shoes. economic healing: a look at how far we've come since the financial crisis, and how much further we have to go. and, it's a landlord's market. is it time for renters to buy? plus, why america's love of football could create a new national holiday. and as stocks soar, is it time to sell? first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's monday, january 28th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: the s&p 500 winning streak. the s&p closed above 1,500 friday.

that's the first time since 2007, and it caps off the longest winning streak since 2004. as investors disconnect from apple stock, the tech giant is losing its status as king of the stock market. exxon is back on top with a $417-billion market cap versus apple's $412. apple dropped $76 last week. the federal reserve begins a two-day meeting tomorrow on monetary policy and interest rates. and reports say u.s. air and american airlines may soon have a merger deal ready for takeoff. mark sebastian of options pit mentoring to and says now for a closer look at the markets on this monday morning. good monday morning to you mark. > > good morning angela. > the s&p 500 closed above 1500. as a trader, are you starting to look for some sell signals? > > you know, i will say no. if you look at vix term structure, it is saying, buy, buy, buy. if

you look at the correlation index, jcj, that is saying buy, buy, buy. everything i'm saying is buy. the only places where i'm really seeing sell signals is in individual names, not so much the overall market. > procter and gamble is one of the names that wall street is in love with right now. there was a lot of activity happening off of earnings on friday, the options market was active, the stock was active. is this stock a buy at current levels? > > talk about hate it to elate it, it's unbelievable how the sentiment has changed on that thing. it is incredible what a restructuring and a rebranding will do for a company. they have done a great job, and i don't see any reason why the stock couldn't keep rallying, especially if the s&ps keep rallying. > the euro hit an 11-month high on friday. what is the trade there? > > it's interesting, we've seen a total correlation break between gold and the euro. it

used to be, the euro rallies, gold rallies; the euro falls, gold falls. now, as we come in this morning, the euro has been up, up, up. gold is getting hammered. i think it shows how much weakness is in gold, and how the euro bank situation is really strengthening. > thank you mark. > > thank you. the tumultuous tenure of treasury secretary timothy geithner began in the bleakest economic times since the great depression. in our cover story, a look at whether the policies under his watch improved things or left taxpayers more vulnerable than ever. the economy is not in free-fall, nor are the markets frozen, as many describe the financial crisis timothy geithner faced when he became treasury secretary as president obama was sworn into office the first time. finance professor dale rosenthal says government- directed taxpayer bailouts helped stabilize the economy. "instead of a big drop, we saw a softer landing but a longer recovery." under secretary geithner, the treasury department participated in bank bailouts despite risky

gambles that led to the subprime mortgage collapse. critics say that under giethner, there was no assurance that banks would use their money to lend to business and homeowners. "there was no reportability, no accountability, it was just, 'give me the money and i'll save us.'" "the one part of the stimulus that worked was the money to state and local governments that went to teachers, firefighters, city workers. if that hadn't happened, unemployment would've been significantly worse." there were more bailouts. geithner oversaw $182 billion to insurance and financial services giant aig, which gave millions in bonuses to top executives responsible for aig's financial mess from credit default swaps. the auto bailout of gm and chrysler - the obama administration says it saved a million jobs. at his last speech as treasury secretary, geithner defended his efforts. "the actions you took put us in a much better position for

whatever is ahead of us." homeowners facing foreclosure say geithner could have done more to modify home loans. and while congress passed some of the toughest restrictions on banking and wall street in decades under the dodd-frank act, geithner's critics say banking risk has only become more concentrated. "he engineered bank mergers that only made them riskier and bigger. the problem is it's done without assurances that they won't repeat the mistakes of the past." the arguments for and against what should be done for financial institutions considered "too big to fail" will no doubt go on, as parts of the dodd-frank act continue to be implimented. the auto industry reports car sales later this week, and despite the winter temps, it's predicted car sales sizzled in january. early indications by jd power show car and truck numbers may roll in with a 15% rise in sales - the highest rate in 5 years. economists closely watch the data to get a feel for consumer demand. it's becoming apparent, as the housing market

recovers, people are buying more cars. there's no quick fix for boeing's dreamliner jets. reports say batteries that caused fires in the planes were not overcharged, but individual cells may have exceeded their design limits, according to federal safety officials. the batteries are still under investigation by the national transportation safety board, and no possible issues have been ruled out. the planes are grounded until the problem is solved. the senate votes today on a $50-billion emergency aid bill to assist americans harmed by superstorm sandy. the house recently approved the bill, and president obama has promied to sign. lawmakers from the northeast contend the money is urgently needed, especially in new jersey, new york and connecticut. conservative republicans say the relief package will only add to the nation's debt unless it's off- set with spending cuts.

several of president obama's 2012 recess appointments are being ruled "invalid." a federal appeals court unanimously ruled that the president's appointments to the national labor relations board last year were unconstitutional. senate republicans filed the case against the president, arguing that the appointments were made while the senate was in pro-forma session and not in recess. the obama administration is expected to appeal. a fresh audit of apple's supply chain reveals continuing labor problems. apple has conducted nearly 400 audits of its suppliers, including foxconn. investigations revealed cases of underage workers, discrimination and low wages. the company says it is cracking down on its most challenging labor issues. it will also investigate smaller suppliers. hostess brands are closer to finding a new home. the iconic twinkie company may dish out an agreement this week to sell its drake's cake business. flowers foods is expected to bid $390 million for wonder, butternut

and other hostess bread brands, while bidders may be in the works for twinkie snack cakes. meanwhile, across the pond, the latest indicators show britain's economy shrank more than expected in the 4th quarter. the boost in the 3rd quarter for hotels and restaurants during the olympics wore off, and the shut down of a major oil field hit the economy. the country is said to be on the edge of a record triple-dip recession. investors in china are finding a silver lining in 2013. chinese investors are snapping up silver as an alternative to paying the higher price for gold futures. one ounce of silver costs $32, while an ounce of gold will run you over $1600. silver prices are rising on its newfound popularity in china, as well as the decreasing supply of the precious metal. bank branches are disappearing. according to snl financial, last year more than 2,200 branches closed, while nearly 1,150 opened. it was the largest loss of branches since 2005. bank of america, capitol one,

wells fargo, citi and bb&t were the most aggressive in shutting down branches. greg mcbride of bankrate.com joins us via skype. hi greg. why so many closings? > > well, just as the early years of the last decade saw too many homes being built, there were also too many bank branches being built. that, coupled with the ongoing trend toward bank consolidation, banks merging together, means that there are a lot of unprofitable branches out there that need to be weeded out. > is there a push toward mobile and online banking behind this? > > i don't think it's a push as much as it's a pull on the part of the consumer. consumers have expressed the preference that the way they want to interact with their bank, particularly for the routine daily transactions, is online and through mobile devices, which again makes the branches all the more unnecessary, particularly for the routine daily transactions.

> is that dangerous, especially with the recent hack attacks? > > no. again, i don't think that the hack attacks necessarily pose any particular concern to consumers as long as they are being diligent. after all, this is the way that people are doing their business, not just in financial services, but everything from travel to everything else. it's online, it's through mobile devices. it's not like going into retail outlets as much anymore. > thank you greg. > > thanks angie. tax prep is becoming pricier. last year, the cost to prepare a 1040 form with itemized deductions and a state tax return was up 6%, to $246, according to a survey. the price for forms without deductions is up 12%, to $143. high rent and labor costs drove up the price in pacific states such as california and washington. an accountant with specialties in certain areas like small business can help lower costs or produce a higher refund. some people will spend whatever it takes to stay warm this winter. try this on for size - it's a $2,400 men's down jacket made by german skiwear specialist bogner. and it's

practically sold out! the faux leather coat is water repellent. the hood is an additional $300. quentin tarantino's "django unchained" is receiving praise from the academy; however, it is catching flack from ebay. the site has banned the sale of django action figures. ebay says the figures violate its offensive materials policy, which ban items that are intolerant toward race or religion. the film, which depicts slavery in the south, has been criticized for its heavy use of racial slurs. on a much lighter note, a petition is circulating to end the "i have to go to work monday morning blues" after the superbowl. 4for4 fantasy football is collecting signatures at whitehouse.gov in order to get the president to consider declaring the monday after the superbowl a national holiday. 100,000 names are needed.

still to come, is it a buying opportunity? we'll discuss the pros and cons of renting versus buying in this market later on. but first, mapping out job growth. bill moller finds out what sectors are hiring after this "in the know" message. ♪

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and why we use only natural colors and natural flavors in yoplait original. so, anything else we can do for you, let us know. but you'll keep it to yogurt, right? 'cause we shouldn't really help with your love life. yoplait. it is so good! economic indicators are indicating, yes, the economy is improving. but is this recovery real? what about all the important lagging indicators, like hiring & employment? let's talk with tom gimbel. he is the ceo of lasalle network, a

staffing & recruiting agency. tom, the nature of your business puts you in a great position to observe various economic forces at work. give me the big picture. what is happening? > > i think the economy is doing better. i think what the problem is is the disconnect between washington d.c. and the politicians and the working or nonworking public of what an acceptable rate of unemployment is. unfortunately, with technology changing, there are going to be more unemployed people. the question is, there are jobs available too. how do we mesh those together? > all right, jobs: where is the hiring taking place? > > the old stalwarts are always going to be there. you have healthcare, you have education. the key is, people don't know what that means. do i need to be a nurse, do i need to be a doctor, do i need to be a teacher? but the answer really is, if you are in customer service in healthcare, can you do data analysis in healthcare? can you do technology for the

software programs that are in healthcare? a lot of it is the population going out and getting retrained in order to take the jobs that are needed. > so technology, that mantra is you really have to be training yourself for the jobs of the day. they're not around anymore, the kind of jobs that used to be. > > it's a different world. everything is different, right? styles change, jobs change. the problem is, if you have been doing the same thing for 20 years, 15 years, 30 years, and you're unemployed, the odds are you probably weren't that good at it to begin with. > tell me about temporary workers, temp-to-full-time. what about contractors? > > temping contracting is really bigger than it's been in the past five, six, seven years. companies are putting their foot in the water. they need people to do the work. they are not willing to commit. they don't want to go through the negative morale and the issues of having to do a big layoff again like they had to do 2, 3, 4, 5 years ago. they don't want to do that, and a lot of employees want flexibility in the workforce. they want to be able to work from home. they want job sharing. well, there is a trade-off to those things, and

the trade-off is, you may not be a "permanent employee ," but they'll let you do it on a contractor temporary basis. > so is it more of an employers' market as opposed to a job-seekers' market right now still? > > it depends on your skill level. it depends on your skill level. if you have the technology skills, if you have revenue production abilities, it is always going to be, for the highly skilled professional, it is going to be an employee market. but, for the mass levels of people, for entry-level and mid-level positions, it is definitely still an employers' market. > tom gimbel from the lasalle network. thanks so much. > > absolutely. thanks for having me. still ahead, to rent or not to rent? that is the question. a look at some new data from the housing market, coming up. ♪

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the price of rent is expected to go through the roof this year, leaving many renters questioning whether they are better off buying. anthony lolli, founder of rapid realty franchise, joins us via skype this morning. good morning. are you seeing any signs of a shift? it's been a landlord's market for quite some time now. > > well, i do see a small shift in people purchasing homes, serious sellers and serious buyers, but it's definitely still a strong rental market. > what factors should renters and buyers consider? > > they should consider if they're ready for any of the incidentals that happen from home ownership. for example, a leaky faucet may turn into a $1,000 water bill. or a natural disaster like sandy may leave you footing the bill until you iron things out with your insurance company. > does it make a difference if it is a family verses a couple verses a single? > > well, a family may want more privacy, so home ownership might be the direction, or for them to lease an entire home. but when you lease an entire home, you are talking about dollar per square foot. can you afford that? now a single person may have the agility to move from a studio to a one-bedroom

and hop around from neighborhood to neighborhood and really get the full gamut and feel before they make that home ownership decision. > what is the best time to buy or to rent? what are some of the signs or criteria? > > when you have serious sellers. when you have people that are pricing their property according to the market. and there are tons of tools out there now that people can take full advantage of - trulia and zillow and websites like that can let you know the market value of a property. it is always the right time when you see a good deal. > financially, doesn't it make more sense though in the long run to own a place? > > it does. if you are talking about long-term home ownership. if you are talking about a five- to seven-year home

ownership term, yes, it makes sense. but if you are looking to buy and flip your property within the first two years, absolutely not. > with rents so high, is there any way to negotiate that price down? > > oh no, not in today's market. landlords are getting what they want and more. > that is anthony lolli, founder of rapid realty franchise. thanks anthony. > > thank you. just ahead, is caterpillar a stock to buy? a trader digs in next in chart talk.

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andrew keene, president of keeneonthemarket.com, joins us now for a closer look at caterpillar, with earnings coming out today. happy monday morning to you andrew. > > happy monday to you as well. > is this stock a buy? it is actually down on the year. > > it's down on the year, yes it is. is it a buy? it's hard to say. it's in a nice bull channel from the november lows. it is trading above all its moving averages - the 50-, the 150-, and the 200-day moving average. their earnings should

be good. i put on a bull call spread. i don't want to be buying the market up here. we haven't even tested the opening of the year this year. this one is down this year. they had some problems with the chinese company that they bought. maybe an accounting fraud, kind of like an autonomy scandal, in china, so i am long this one through call spreads where i can define my risk vs. reward. there is immediate support on the gap level down at $94. then we have the moving averages away down at $89. so i am long it through call spreads. there is a general rule, or cardinal rule: stocks that go to $80 go to $120. so i think there is more upside in this one. > i want to ask you about the market too, since you brought that up. we talked to a trader at the top of the show. he is seeing a lot of buy signals out there. are you seeing any sell signals for the s&p 500? > > it is interesting. i always say i play better from the bear side. i know that i trade better when the volatility is very high, there are a lot of big movements, we sell off a lot. this is a very hard market for me to trade. i don't like these slow grinds higher. it's grinding slowly higher, up and up and up. we had a new high of the year on friday. we haven't

tested the opening of the year yet, but we are making higher highs, higher lows, the market looks strong. i've got to play with the market in front of me, not the market i want it to be, so i actually have been playing to the long side more than the short side, because that is what the market is telling me. it can reverse at any point. i am going to use the vix as my indicator as a possible reversal. but it looks like we could break through this 1,500 level to get to 1,525 in a heartbeat. > thanks a lot andrew. andrew keene of keeneonthemarket.com. > > thank you. that closes out this edition of first business. coming up tomorrow: a controversial topic. the mayor of chicago wants investment banks to embrace new gun safety laws. from all of us at first business, we wish you a great start to your week!